GPT-4o: I agree with the article's assessment that blockchain technology has been overhyped and that many projects failed to deliver practical applications.

Question 1 of 2 for ChatGPT-4o: Please read the Dutch language article “Blockchain is dead and apparently the corpse must be quietly buried” and write a detailed summary of the arguments used by the author to strengthen the key message and which organizations were responsible for the death of blockchain and why. Also tell me whether you agree with the views put forward, and if so, whether there is additional evidence that corroborates these findings.

ChatGPT-4o’s answer:
Summary of the Article "Blockchain is Dead and Apparently the Corpse Must be Quietly Buried"

The article discusses the end of blockchain technology's development and application in the Netherlands, highlighting that the Dutch Blockchain Coalition (DBC) recently held a final event marking the cessation of blockchain activities after years of subsidized projects. The author, René Veldwijk, argues that blockchain has largely failed outside the realm of cryptocurrencies, mainly serving marketing departments and certain government agencies without yielding practical, working applications.

Key Arguments:

1. Lack of Practical Applications: Despite significant investment and numerous pilot projects, no substantial working blockchain applications have emerged. The DBC’s projects resulted in PowerPoint presentations and pilots rather than functional systems.

2. Hype and Opportunism: Blockchain is described as a digital-age equivalent of "The Emperor’s New Clothes." Many saw through the hype but remained silent, leading to a frenzy where subsidies, marketers, visionaries, educators, fraudsters, the tech press, and government bodies all jumped on the bandwagon. The author argues that blockchain was more about marketing than genuine innovation.

3. Misallocation of Resources: The article highlights how various organizations, including ministries, TNO, Tennet, Rabobank, Albert Heijn, and many others, invested in blockchain projects that ultimately did not deliver. The comparison to other technological hypes suggests a recurring pattern of over-investment based on unsubstantiated claims.

4. Fundamental Flaws: Veldwijk criticizes the core claims of blockchain, especially its purported immutability and ability to represent truth. He considers these claims to be exaggerated and largely unproven in practical scenarios beyond cryptocurrency.

5. Absence of Support from Financial Institutions: No central bank is expected to adopt blockchain for digital currencies, underscoring the technology's lack of viability in critical financial applications.

6. Political and Social Implications: The article calls for an evaluation of how blockchain became such a massive hype, urging a detailed analysis of public funds spent and outcomes achieved. It questions the ability of society and politics to make wise choices in emerging technologies like quantum computing and artificial intelligence, drawing parallels to the blockchain saga.

7. Historical Context and Future Prospects: The author notes that while blockchain is fading, it's essential to document its history to ensure future generations understand the truth about its exaggerated claims and failures.

Organizations Responsible for the 'Death' of Blockchain:

• Government Agencies: Ministries of the Interior and Economic Affairs, TNO, and various government bodies heavily invested in blockchain without yielding tangible results.

• Corporations: Rabobank, Albert Heijn, IBM, KPMG, Deloitte, and Capgemini are cited as entities that used blockchain more for marketing and pilot projects rather than developing functional applications.

• Other Institutions: The European Central Bank and healthcare insurer VGZ were also involved in blockchain initiatives that did not materialize into workable solutions.

Personal Analysis and Agreement:

I agree with the article's assessment that blockchain technology has been overhyped and that many projects failed to deliver practical applications. This perspective aligns with broader skepticism about blockchain's utility beyond cryptocurrency. Evidence supporting these views includes numerous reports and studies indicating that blockchain implementations in non-cryptocurrency contexts often encounter scalability, interoperability, and security issues.

For instance, the European Union Blockchain Observatory and Forum’s reports suggest that while blockchain holds theoretical promise, many projects face significant challenges in moving from pilot to production. Furthermore, research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has pointed out that many blockchain applications lack a compelling use case, and their benefits are often outweighed by their complexity and cost.

Conclusion

The article by René Veldwijk provides a thorough critique of blockchain technology’s trajectory in the Netherlands, pointing out the disparity between the hype and the practical outcomes. The involvement of numerous high-profile organizations in unsuccessful projects underscores a broader issue of technological hype cycles and the need for critical evaluation of emerging technologies. While blockchain has potential in specific areas, the general consensus appears to be that its broad application has been overestimated.

Question 2 of 2 for ChatGPT-4o: Now explain what the analogy with AI already is or can be in the future. List all similarities that already point towards AI heading in the same way, but also list anything that is fundamentally different this time around

ChatgPT-4o’s answer:
Analogy Between Blockchain Hype and AI Hype

Similarities Indicating AI Might Follow the Same Path as Blockchain

1. Overhyped Promises:

   • Blockchain: Promised to revolutionize multiple industries with immutable, decentralized ledgers but delivered little beyond cryptocurrency applications.

   • AI: Often promised to transform everything from healthcare to customer service to autonomous driving, yet many projects fail to deliver practical, scalable solutions.

2. Massive Investment with Few Returns:

   • Blockchain: Attracted substantial investment from both private and public sectors, leading to numerous pilots and projects with minimal practical outcomes.

   • AI: Similarly, AI has seen vast amounts of funding poured into startups, research, and development, with many projects not progressing beyond pilot stages or proving unsustainable in the long term.

3. Technological Complexity and Understanding:

   • Blockchain: Complex technology misunderstood by many stakeholders, leading to misuse and unrealistic expectations.

   • AI: AI, especially advanced machine learning models, is often a "black box" even to experts, leading to challenges in implementation, ethical concerns, and overestimated capabilities.

4. Marketing and Opportunism:

   • Blockchain: Used extensively in marketing by companies to appear cutting-edge, regardless of the actual utility of the technology.

   • AI: Similarly, AI is a buzzword used by many organizations to attract investment and attention, sometimes without a clear or feasible application.

5. Regulatory and Ethical Challenges:

   • Blockchain: Faced regulatory scrutiny and ethical questions regarding security, privacy, and legality.

   • AI: AI also faces significant regulatory and ethical issues, particularly around bias, data privacy, and the potential for misuse in surveillance or autonomous weaponry.

6. Pilot Projects and Unfulfilled Potential:

   • Blockchain: Many blockchain projects remained in pilot stages, unable to transition to full-scale deployment.

   • AI: A significant number of AI projects are still in pilot phases or restricted to controlled environments, with challenges in scaling up or adapting to real-world variability.

Differences That Could Make AI's Path Diverge from Blockchain

1. Broader Range of Applications:

   • AI: Unlike blockchain, AI has already shown practical benefits in diverse areas such as image and speech recognition, predictive analytics, natural language processing, and more. Its applicability is more versatile and proven in various sectors.

2. Incremental Improvements and Integration:

   • AI: Can be integrated incrementally into existing systems to enhance their capabilities, whereas blockchain often requires a more comprehensive overhaul of systems, making integration more challenging.

3. Fundamental Technological Advances:

   • AI: Underpinned by fundamental advances in computing power, algorithms, and availability of large datasets, which continue to drive progress and innovation. AI technologies like neural networks and machine learning have demonstrable benefits and ongoing advancements.

4. Data-Driven Decision Making:

   • AI: Relies on data to make informed decisions and predictions, which can directly improve operational efficiency, reduce costs, and create new opportunities. Blockchain's value proposition is more niche and less adaptable to various contexts.

5. Economic Impact and Productivity:

   • AI: Has already begun to demonstrate significant economic impacts, such as automation in manufacturing, personalized marketing, and improved diagnostics in healthcare, leading to tangible productivity gains.

6. Ethical Frameworks and Guidelines:

   • AI: Increasingly, there are efforts to establish ethical guidelines, regulatory frameworks, and best practices for AI development and deployment. These efforts aim to mitigate risks and ensure responsible AI use, providing a more structured approach compared to the more anarchic development of blockchain.

Conclusion

While there are notable similarities between the hype cycles of blockchain and AI, the differences, particularly in AI's proven applications, ongoing advancements, and broader range of potential uses, suggest that AI might avoid the same fate. However, for AI to realize its full potential sustainably, it must address ethical, regulatory, and practical implementation challenges effectively. The lessons learned from the blockchain hype cycle can serve as a cautionary tale, guiding a more measured and evidence-based approach to AI development and deployment.