Contrary to the widespread belief that AI’s economic disruption lies in a distant future, the report outlines clear indications that AI is already affecting employment patterns...

AI’s Early Impact on Job Growth – Signs of Structural Change in the Labor Market

by ChatGPT-4o

The J.P. Morgan Global Research report titled "AI’s Impact on Job Growth" provides an early but compelling picture of how generative AI is beginning to reshape the U.S. labor market. Contrary to the widespread belief that AI’s economic disruption lies in a distant future, the report outlines clear indications that AI is already affecting employment patterns, particularly among knowledge workers. The analysis draws on current employment trends, graduate unemployment data, and sector-specific labor growth, highlighting that we may be entering a period of structural labor market change — not merely cyclical displacement.

Key Findings and Themes

1. Surprising Trend: Rising Unemployment Among College Graduates, Especially in AI-Exposed Fields

One of the most unexpected and concerning findings is the rise in unemployment among U.S. college graduates, which reached 5.8% in March 2025 — the highest in over four years. Particularly noteworthy is that graduates from majors exposed to AI disruption (e.g., computer engineering, graphic design, architecture) are experiencing some of the highest jobless rates, rivaling those in traditionally less employable fields like anthropology. This reversal of expectations challenges the long-standing assumption that technical degrees provide guaranteed job security in a digital economy.

2. Controversial Suggestion: AI May Already Be Displacing Knowledge Workers

J.P. Morgan Chief U.S. Economist Michael Feroli openly challenges the framing of AI-related job loss as a "future" problem, arguing that we are already seeing early displacement of “good jobs” in tech and other knowledge sectors. This reframing invites deeper policy reflection about whether governments and institutions are too slow in preparing for labor disruption that is already underway.

3. Valuable Analysis: Employment Plateau in AI-Intensive Tech Industries

The report identifies a notable slowdown in employment growth in sectors like cloud computing, web search, and computer systems design — a trend that began just after the release of ChatGPT in late 2022. While this could partially reflect post-pandemic hiring corrections, the correlation with AI deployment is hard to ignore. Companies may already be leaning on generative AI to optimize coding, customer interaction, and backend systems.

4. Surprising Observation: Jobless Recovery for White-Collar Work May Mirror Past Blue-Collar Trends

The report draws an alarming historical parallel: just as routine middle-skill jobs were decimated by automation in the 1980s and struggled to recover during successive recessions, non-routine cognitive occupations — scientists, designers, lawyers — may now face the same fate. AI’s ability to perform high-cognition tasks at scale could prolong post-recession labor market recoveries for white-collar professionals.

5. Moderating Factor: AI Adoption Still Limited in Most Industries

While the impact is significant in select tech sectors, AI adoption across the broader economy remains low. As of mid-2025, fewer than 10% of all U.S. firms report regular AI use, with only modestly higher adoption in professional and scientific industries (~20%). This suggests that AI’s transformative potential is still in its early stages, and broader labor displacement may follow as adoption scales.

Controversial and Thought-Provoking Statements

1. "AI may already be taking ‘knowledge worker’ jobs.”
   → This challenges a deeply rooted belief that AI affects only low-skill or repetitive jobs.

2. "Unemployment among college graduates has been trending above the aggregate rate, which is highly unusual by historical standards.”
   → This overturns long-held economic patterns where higher education was a hedge against unemployment.

3. "During the next recession... AI might induce a large-scale displacement for occupations that consist of primarily non-routine cognitive tasks.”
   → The idea of AI-induced white-collar jobless recoveries introduces a new macroeconomic risk.

4. "Employment across cloud, web search, and computer systems design stopped growing at the end of 2022, just after the release of ChatGPT.”
   → This statement hints at the speed and impact of LLMs displacing human labor within a year.

5. "Rising unemployment among non-routine cognitive jobs now surpasses that of manual labor.”
   → A stark and controversial inversion of the typical skills-bias narrative in labor economics.

Conclusion: The Early Disruption of the Professional Class

J.P. Morgan’s research brings much-needed empirical clarity to the AI-and-jobs debate. By moving beyond speculative projections to analyze real-world labor data, the report reveals that AI is no longer just a distant disruptor—it is already reshaping employment dynamics in subtle but significant ways. The most at-risk workers today are not factory employees, but college-educated professionals, particularly those in tech-related fields.

While AI adoption remains low in most industries, the early signals from the tech sector serve as a warning for broader structural changes to come. If AI follows the same cyclical dynamics as past waves of automation, we may face a future where high-skill, high-paying jobs are just as vulnerable to obsolescence as the factory jobs of decades past.

Recommendations for Stakeholders

• For Governments: Begin designing safety nets and upskilling programs specifically for white-collar workers, not just blue-collar ones.

• For Universities: Rethink curricula in exposed fields and focus on adaptive, interdisciplinary skills that AI cannot easily replicate.

• For Employers: Embrace human-AI collaboration models instead of displacement; AI should augment cognitive work, not eliminate it.

• For Workers: Future-proofing your career now requires continuous learning and adaptability — even in fields once considered secure.

If ignored, the early indicators presented in this report may evolve into a full-blown economic and social crisis where a growing segment of the educated workforce finds itself structurally displaced. Policymakers and business leaders would be wise to treat this not as a forecast but as a present-day reality.